Fluid Milk and Cream — Western U.S.
In California, milk supplies are at low points. Production is steady to declining, but processing continues to take place as planned. Milk components are seasonally down. Bottled milk demand has starting to increase in preparation for the new school year. Arizona milk volumes off the dairy farms are declining more than usual for this time of the year. The humidity caused by the monsoon is partly the reason for the declines. More milk is going to schools' accounts, keeping handlers busy. Out-of-state milk is also flowing into Arizona as processors manage to get the additional milk needed for their day-to-day activities, while at the same time helping another state meet their balancing needs. Milk supply in New Mexico is down from a week ago. There was a slight uptick on balancing needs at the beginning of the week, but it has subsided. Class I and III demands are up, whereas Class II milk is moving steadily to processing facilities. Class IV manufacturing has slowed down a bit. Overall, the market tone is steady. Strong milk production continues in the Pacific Northwest. Although intakes have eased back slightly, there is plenty of milk available for most processing needs. Bottling demand is steady. Aside from some scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, many manufacturers are running near full schedules. Idaho, Utah and Colorado milk production continues near peak levels. While milk production has eased back in the southern parts of the region, Idaho milk outputs are still near flush levels. Manufacturers are mostly full and are unable to take on much, if any, additional milk. Any disruption to the milk flow quickly causes gluts in the pipeline. Discounts of $4 to $5 under Class are common for backed up milk to get it to move. Industry contacts do not think there has been any milk dumped recently. Schools within the region start sessions in the next two weeks, and contacts expect bottling to relieve some of the pressure on the milk supply. Cheese processors' intakes of condensed skim have augmented in some parts of the West, but loads are still available for nonfat dry milk production. There remain heavy pulls of cream going to the making of ice cream. Some plants have either decreased their butter output or refrained from producing it altogether. Cream multiples for all Classes have moved up by .0100 on both ends of the range. National Retail Report Dairy ± Fluid Milk Summary Advertised Prices at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets ending during the period of 8/2/2019 to 8/8/2019 Half Gallon, All Fat Tests Weighted Average Price National This Period Last Week Last Year Conventional $2.27 $1.79 $2.18 Organic $3.61 $3.63 $3.90 Regional (Conventional) Wtd. Ave. Low High Southwest $2.69 $2.69 $2.69 Regional (Organic) Wtd. Ave. Low High Northwest $3.40 $2.79 $3.99 Southwest $3.53 $2.99 $3.99 Gallon, All Fat Tests Weighted Average Price National This Period Last Week Last Year Conventional $3.16 $2.45 $2.68 Organic $5.11 $5.47 $5.55 Regional (Conventional) Wtd. Ave. Low High Northwest $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 Southwest $2.79 $1.99 $2.99 Regional (Organic) Wtd. Ave. Low High Northwest $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 Southwest $5.98 $5.98 $5.98 Western U.S., F.O.B. Cream Multiples Range - All Classes: 1.1600 - 1.3200 Information for the period August 5 - 9, 2019, issued weekly Secondary Sourced Information: Dairy Products Report - Ice Cream, Regular, Hard Released August 1, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Ice Cream, Regular (Hard) Production ± States and United States: June 2018 and 2019 Monthly Production (1000 pounds) Percent Change from Total Cream, Regular (Hard June May June June May Region 2018 2019 2019 2018 2019 United States 70,263 64,194 65,495 -6.8 2.0 Atlantic 14,795 13,833 13,701 -7.4 -1.0 Pennsylvania 3,530 3,361 3,412 -3.3 1.5 Central 42,174 37,083 40,561 -3.8 9.4 Missouri 3,889 3,219 3,335 -14.2 3.6 Ohio 2,578 2,636 2,443 -5.2 -7.3 West 13,294 13,278 11,233 -15.5 -15.4 California 6,785 7,269 5,800 -14.5 -20.2 Oregon 1,377 1,500 1,261 -8.4 -15.9 Utah 3,033 2,222 2,047 -32.5 -7.9 Ice Cream, Regular (Hard) ± Cumulative Production January - June Cumulative Production Percent Change (1000 pounds) from Report Month 2018 2019 2018 June 370,319 364,900 -1.5