Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S.

Feb. 7

Milk output throughout California is mostly stable and milk processing levels are unchanged from a week ago. Class I sales are steady.

California hay quality is being affected by unsettled weather outcomes. In the Imperial Valley, the first cutting of alfalfa hay is scheduled to take place in the coming two to three weeks, and farmers expect stronger export demand. Demand from Saudi Arabia will likely increase because of restrictions on irrigation water usage for alfalfa farms in this country.

Dairy farmers in California are waiting to see how the hay prices will change in the coming months.

Milk output in Arizona is flat to increasing as comfortable weather conditions are giving an extra boost to cows' productivity. Processing facility managers are running their plants at full or near full capacity and are content with the loads of milk available to them.

Bottled milk demand has not much fluctuated from last week's volumes. Class VI usages remain strong as producers opt to make more butter instead of selling their cream at a discount.

Although milk production is lower in New Mexico this week, milk loads available to buyers are higher than usual. This is because some Class III customers reduced their pre-ordered volumes during the week. Handlers were quick to find ways to push more milk to other Class III processing facilities to clear out some loads. Class I and II orders are both down.

Milk production in the Pacific Northwest is steady. Areas of Washington and Oregon had snowfall early in the week and may get more accumulation this weekend. While snow and colder temperatures tend to stymie milk production somewhat, the moisture is welcome in the region that has been dry through much of the winter. Bottling demand continues at typical seasonal patterns.

In the mountain states of Idaho, Utah and Colorado, milk production is steady. Manufacturers report intakes are in generally good balance with processing needs and there are only a few discounted loads getting pushed into neighboring states. Industry contacts say some cooperatives are projecting milk needs ahead of the spring flush and discussing with members the need to curtail milk production. Cream availability remains strong in the West.

Nonetheless, according to a few market participants, more cream is moving through contracts and the volumes of cream in the spot market have slightly decreased. Butter processors are still taking advantage of favorable cream prices to churn more butter. Cream multipliers are 1.00-1.17, unchanged from a week ago.

 National Retail Report Dairy ± Fluid Milk Summary
     Advertised Prices at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets ending during the period of 2/01/2019
      to 2/07/2019

     Half Gallon, All Fat Tests Weighted Average Price
     National                This Period   Last Week  Last Year
      Organic                   $3.63        $3.98      $3.96
      Conventional              $2.46        $1.00      $1.27

     Regional (Conventional)   Wtd. Ave.      Low       High
      Northwest                  n.a.         n.a.      n.a.
      Southwest                  n.a.         n.a.      n.a.

     Regional (Organic)        Wtd. Ave.      Low       High
      Northwest                 $3.99        $3.99      $3.99
      Southwest                 $3.33        $2.49      $3.99

     Gallon, All Fat Tests Weighted Average Price
     National                This Period   Last Week Last Year
      Organic                   $6.01        $6.85      n.a.
      Conventional              $2.65        $2.65      $2.88

     Regional (Conventional)   Wtd. Ave.      Low       High
      Northwest                 $1.99        $1.99      $1.99
      Southwest                 $2.49        $2.49      $2.49

     Regional (Organic)        Wtd. Ave.      Low       High
      Northwest                 $5.00        $5.00      $5.00

      Southwest                  n.a.         n.a.       n.a.

     Western U.S., F.O.B. Cream
     Multiples Range - All Classes:               1.0000 - 1.1700

     Information for the period February 4 - 8, 2019, issued weekly

     Secondary Sourced Information:

     Dairy Products Report - Ice Cream, Regular, Hard
     Released February 4, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
     Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

     Ice Cream, Regular (Hard) Production ± States and United States: 2017 and 2018
                                     Monthly Production (1000 pounds)    Percent Change from
     Total  Cream, Regular (Hard      November     October  November      November    October
     Region                               2017        2018      2018          2017       2018
     United States                      49,618      59,756    51,921           4.6      -13.1

     Atlantic                           12,541      14,815    13,072           4.2      -11.8
       Pennsylvania                      3,847       3,353     3,830          -0.4       14.2

     Central                            27,447      33,966    29,268           6.6      -13.8
       Missouri                          1,631       2,465     2,279          39.7       -7.5
       Ohio                              1,934       2,247     2,005           3.7      -10.8

     West                                9,630      10,975     9,581          -0.5      -12.7
       California                        5,238       5,367     4,468         -14.7      -16.8
       Oregon                              778       1,091       984          26.5       -9.8
       Utah                              1,701       2,316     2,130          25.2         -8

     Ice Cream, Regular (Hard) ± Cumulative Production January - November
                       Cumulative Production   Percent Change
                           (1000 pounds)            from
     Report Month          2017        2018         2017
     November           716,142     689,157         -3.8

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