SPOKANE — Passage of the USMCA trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico may be getting closer, says the head of the U.S. wheat industry’s overseas marketing arm.

“We need it very badly as a sign to the Mexicans that we’re in this for good, we’re not backing out of this,” said Vince Peterson, president of U.S. Wheat Associates.

Peterson provided an update by phone to board members of the Washington Grain Commission during their Oct. 10 meeting in Spokane.

“Frankly, we also need it to show everybody else — including the Chinese, the UK and whoever else that we might have trading relationships with that we are serious about trade and there’s support all the way from Congress through the executive branch to do these things,” Peterson said.

Negotiators in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative in 2018 asked U.S. Wheat what a trade win with China might look like.

The organization responded with several suggestions, including a large purchase of U.S. wheat from China’s private sector, up to 4 million tons, ideally under China’s wheat tariff rate quota.

“Any purchase is a good purchase, but … that would be a good shot in the arm for the market,” Peterson said.

China recently purchased 130,000 metric tons of soft white wheat, a market class primarily grown in the Pacific Northwest. That may be part of negotiations, Peterson said.

But 60,000 tons of spring wheat China purchased five months ago were never shipped and are still in the books as an outstanding sale.

“The question is, is this 130,000 tons just sort of a political nicety? Is it a placeholder for negotiations, a sign that negotiators are serious about that?” Peterson said. “Their movement on the spring wheat doesn’t give me any real assurance they’ll be picking up the soft wheat any time soon, but we’ll have see how that works out.”

China didn’t purchase any U.S. wheat last year. U.S. Wheat considers China a strong potential market if they can nail down a trade deal.

A partial agreement with China may be possible, Peterson said.

In Japan, wheat farmers received “100%” of what they wanted in the new U.S. trade deal, Peterson said.

Growers got a level playing field in Japan with Canada and Australia when it comes to tariffs, and a country-specific quota, Peterson said.

The deal should be implemented Jan. 1, subject to a decision by Japan’s legislature. U.S. congressional approval is not required.

Even with trade issues, sales to Japan are nearly identical to what they were last year, roughly 1.3 million tons — a shortage of about 40,000 tons,  Peterson said.