Despite headwinds, milk production rises

Capital Press

Milk production in Idaho during October increased 6.9 percent -- to 1.09 billion pounds -- over the same month last year, according to USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

A NASS preliminary report also found that of the national 52,000 head increase in cows over the past year, 25,000 were in Idaho.

Idaho officials are skeptical of the numbers.

"That's somebody's best guess; I wouldn't put much stock in it," said Bob Naerebout, executive director of Idaho Dairymen's Association. "The real numbers will be out at the end of November. NASS should just wait."

He doesn't know of any dairy that has expanded, he added. One new facility was built in the Magic Valley, but he didn't think it had been stocked.

"There has been a gradual increase during all of 2010 -- just a general expansion," said Vince Matthews, director of NASS' Idaho field office.

At 571,000 head, October's herd was unchanged from September.

Mike Roth, a Jerome dairyman and president of Idaho Dairymen's Association, said there are lots of heifers on Idaho farms, boosted by break-even or better prices before feed grain prices went up a month ago.

"Producers throughout the state may have added a few heifers each and culled a little less because of a mild summer," he said. "There was cautious optimism this summer until grains went up and milk went down."

Producers are likely to be less optimistic for 2011, he said.

It "may not be as bad as 2009, but the banks' patience is gone and producers are getting tired of the losses or perceived losses going into 2011," he said.

While prices are strong right now, futures are weak for the first quarter of the new year, Naerebout said.

The national Class III average for October was $16.94 per hundredweight, but producers say the more important number is the margin of milk price over feed costs.

Some producers didn't lock in feed or milk contracts because their lenders might have directed them to wait to see if they could get their operating loans renewed for 2011, Roth said.

Idaho's average milk production per cow in October was 1,910 pounds, up 40 pounds from October 2009. That's likely to decrease with the high cost of feed grains.

Nationally, the major dairy states produced 14.8 billion pounds, up 3.3 percent from October 2009. Output was strongest in the West, up an average of 5.6 percent in California, Idaho, Washington, Arizona and Oregon, and relatively flat in the Upper Midwest, which was up only 0.6 percent in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Production per cow averaged 1,767 pounds, 47 pounds above October 2009. The number of milk cows was 8.37 million head, unchanged from September 2010.

Online

National Agricultural Statistics Service: www.nass.usda.gov