Cranberries at harvest time.

U.S. cranberry growers are expected to produce more berries this year than in 2021, though the harvest is forecast to be smaller than past bumper crops that yielded a price-crushing surplus.

The USDA predicts farmers in Oregon, Wisconsin, New Jersey and Massachusetts will collect 7.44 million barrels of cranberries, up 5% from last year’s harvest of 7 million barrels. A barrel equals 100 pounds.

The Cranberry Marketing Committee expects farmers to harvest 8.3 million barrels. The committee predicts a bigger crop in Wisconsin and also includes Washington in its calculation.

The 2021 harvest was the smallest since 2010, helping further reduce a cranberry surplus that peaked at roughly 100% in 2016 after a record-smashing crop of 9.6 million barrels.

Average prices dropped below $30 a barrel in 2018 and 2019, but have recovered some since. The industry used volume controls in 2017 and 2018 to cut the surplus by more than half.

Prices averaged $39 a barrel in 2021, according to the USDA.

Long Beach, Wash., grower Malcolm McPhail said he doubts that prices that once topped $50 a barrel will return, but that he’s satisfied with prices above $40.

McPhail started harvesting berries on Monday. He said he couldn’t recall starting so late.

A wet spring pushed the growing season back and interrupted the normal fertilizing schedule. “I’ve never been more unsure about how a crop will be,” he said.

Bandon, Ore., grower Charlie Ruddell also said his crop was late. A danger in waiting any longer to harvest is that the fruit will soften on the vine, he said.

The USDA forecasts Oregon growers will harvest 520,000 barrels, up 6% from last year.

The USDA has stopped forecasting Washington’s crop. The Cranberry Marketing Committee predicts the state will produce 163,000 barrels.

Wisconsin and Massachusetts account for more than 80% of U.S. cranberry production. Both states had abnormal growing seasons in 2021, according to the USDA.

The USDA predicts Wisconsin this year will yield 4.16 million barrels, up 3% from 2021, but far short of the 6.13 million barrels the state produced in 2016.

The marketing committee predicts Wisconsin will produce 5.2 million barrels.

The USDA forecasts Massachusetts growers will harvest 1.8 million barrels, up 11%.

The marketing committee projects a 35% ending inventory for this year’s crop. To increase sales, the industry is investing in overseas promotions, particularly in China and India.