Cold weather could push harvest back, missing biggest sales

By DAN WHEAT

Capital Press

Pacific Northwest cherry growers are worried about a potentially small crop and the likelihood it will be late for critical Fourth of July sales.

Spring was cooler than normal last year, but this year it's even cooler, delaying bud and fruit development to the point that Northwest Cherry Growers of Yakima, Wash., has delayed its official estimate of crop size.

Normally, the industry's promotional arm estimates the upcoming crop size about May 5, but as of May 11 it still hadn't issued an estimate.

The crop is 10 to 14 days behind schedule in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah and Montana, said B.J. Thurlby, president of Northwest Cherry Growers and the Washington State Fruit Commission. Washington produces 80 to 85 percent of the Northwest crop.

With winter freeze damage, frosts still occurring, weather too cool for fruitlets to shuck from blossoms and higher elevations still not even in bloom, Thurlby said he can't get a good read out of any growing district.

"I can't ever remember the crop picture being this cloudy this late in the year," he said. "For me it might be best to do a regression analysis, just play the historical averages. I don't know what else to do."

The big question, he said, is whether the crop will be a decent 14 million to 18 million, 20-pound boxes or "disappear on us and go down to 8 or 9 million. And that's a question no one can answer."

Normally picking peaks in late June in time for good volumes for Fourth of July holiday sales. More produce is sold for the Fourth than any other time of the year and cherries are usually the No. 1 item, Thurlby said.

Less than top volume for the holiday means a loss of sales, he said.

The Fourth was largely missed the last two years and, along with a glut of too many cherries after the Fourth two years ago, devastated growers, he said. Last year, he said, they survived.

Like last year, marketers will being trying to keep consumers interested in cherries well after the Fourth with sales continuing into August.

In Washington, picking usually starts June 1 or 2 near Eltopia, north of Pasco.

"We're thinking it will be June 15, maybe even later," Thurlby said.

"We're coming off the coldest April in the state. Let's hope we don't have a cold May. We're seeing real frustration. Wenatchee Heights is blooming halfway up. Orchards at the top should be blooming but are barely opening," he said.

May is forecast to be cooler than normal, said Jim Holcomb, meteorologist and co-owner of Clearwest Inc., an agricultural weather forecast company in Wenatchee.

Daytime highs usually average mid-60s in April but this year seldom broke 60, Holcomb said. They averaged 1.1 degrees lower than the previous record, making it the coldest April ever in Wenatchee, said Tim Smith, WSU tree fruit specialist.

Bud development could catch up a day or two with hot weather but probably no more than that, said Andy Gale, general manager of Stemilt AgServices, of Wenatchee.

Warm weather after bloom is needed for cell division and that hasn't been happening, Gale said. It will affect cherry size.

Cool, windy weather hurts pollination, and growers are concerned about how much fruit could drop early due to winter freeze damage, he said.

"Everyone is antsy, excited and frustrated at the same time," Gale said. "We're trying to be patient, praying a lot."

The slow warming is helping heal winter freeze damage on cherries, but the crop won't be huge, Smith said. There are orchards in the south that won't be picked because of low fruit set.

Hundreds of acres of young apple trees in the Columbia Basin are dying from freeze damage, but no one is tallying the total, he said.

Red Delicious apples hit full bloom in Wenatchee May 7, tying 1993 as the sixth latest bloom since 1922.

There's been good spread in the timing of cherry bloom through Central Washington, which should mean good crop spread. Compressed crop spread led to disaster in 2009. But the spread can change with a couple of weeks of 90-degree weather, Thurlby said.

Spread is when the crop matures at different times in different locations instead of all at once.

Denny Hayden, a grower near Eltopia, said he's optimistic of a nice, moderate crop for the industry. He said he thinks he escaped severe winter freeze damage by a degree or two, only losing a few apple and cherry trees while others show some injury.

His Bing and Rainier cherries have decent fruit set but his Chelan vary a lot in size, which means a lot could drop, he said, adding he still expects a "nice" Chelan crop.

He didn't have a read on his Sweetheart and Skeena, because they have just shucked. He has about 200 acres of cherries.

"The bottom line is we should have a pretty darn hot market on early cherries with high demand," he said. "It should mean we can hang onto good prices all the way through the season."