Light production in Europe bodes well for prices

By DAN WHEAT

Capital Press

WENATCHEE, Wash. -- Washington will produce a record 108.8-million-box apple crop this fall, according to the official forecast the industry released Aug. 11.

Despite the volume, prices should remain strong because companies have learned how to manage large crops of close to or greater than 100 million boxes for the past six years, said Dan Kelly, assistant manager of Washington Growers Clearing House Association in Wenatchee.

The average wholesale price of all varieties from the soon-ending 2009 crop was $19.10 per 40-pound box on Aug. 7 compared with $16.73 a year ago from the previously record-large 2008 crop and $21.02 two years ago from the smaller 2007 crop, Kelly said.

Washington produces about 65 percent of the nation's fresh apples and about 50 percent of its fresh and processing apples used for sauce, juice and baking.

Washington's supply and how it relates to the supply from other apple-producing states is the main driver of prices.

Supply in other states doesn't seem to be an issue, and Europe is believed to be down 11 percent in apples and 19 percent in pears from last year. That bodes well for Washington apple and pear prices, Kelly said.

New York is typically No. 2 in apples, producing about 25 million boxes. Michigan is third at 18 million to 20 million and Pennsylvania is fourth at about 10 million, Kelly said.

California used to be fifth but now is below that at 3 million. Oregon is about 3 million and Idaho is usually under 2 million, he said.

The U.S. Apple Association's annual meeting is Aug. 19-20 in Chicago. The USDA will issue its U.S. apple crop estimate prior to the meeting. Apple-producing states will compare their forecasts with USDA numbers at the meeting and will look at the latest forecasts from other countries to plan marketing strategies, Kelly said.

The Washington forecast is used by companies to set marketing plans to manage their apple inventory to last through the year-long sales season. The forecast is based on what growers and warehouse fieldmen see. The forecast is compiled by the Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association and the Yakima Valley Growers-Shippers Association.

"The economy is still soft and people are looking for value. Fresh fruit and produce should continue to do well," said Charles Pomianek, manager of the Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association.

As of Aug. 1, there was 7.5 million boxes of apples of the 2009 crop left to sell which means, just like a year ago, "we should run out just before new crop is harvested," Pomianek said.

That raises concerns about maintaining shelf space but makes retailers hungry for the new crop, which is good, said Bruce Grim, manager of the Washington Apple Growers Marketing Association and executive director of the Washington State Horticultural Association.

Skin discoloration, called russet, on Golden Delicious and Fuji could reduce packouts, and weather in the final few weeks before harvest could reduce crop size, Grim said. The cool spring, poor pollination and poor chemical thinning probably means small fruit, he said.

Growers throughout central Washington are doing second thinning to eliminate fruit that's too small and misshapen from chemical thinning that didn't work well because of the cool spring, Kelly said.

With the forecast number known, growers may become more selective in what they send to warehouses, possibly shrinking the crop, he said.

Harvest will start with Gala in the southern part of central Washington about mid-August and will finish in early November with late varieties.

The forecast calls for Red Delicious to remain No. 1 in volume as it has been since 1935, but at about 32 percent of the crop compared with its peak of 69 percent in 1990 and 1991. The forecast is for 35.4 million boxes of Reds.

Gala has been No. 2 in volume since 2004, surpassing Golden Delicious, and is forecast for 19.3 million boxes.

boxes

Washington apple crops

(volume in millions of 40-pound, fresh-packed boxes)

2003 79.8

2004 104.9

2005 100.9

2006 99.3

2007 98.7

2008 108.3

2009 102.8*

2010 108.8*

*estimates

Sources: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association and Yakima Valley Growers-Shippers Association.

Washington apple varieties

(volume in millions of 40-pound, fresh-packed boxes)

Variety 2009 2010

Red Delicious 34.9 35.4

Gala 19.3 20.6

Fuji 13.1 14.7

Granny Smith 12.7 14.3

Golden Delicious 10.5 11.2

Cripps Pink 2.8 3.0

Braeburn 3.2 2.9

Cameo 1.0 1.0

Jonagold 1.0 1.0

Others 4.2 4.6